- The Twins are -145 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mariners / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | RTNW
The Seattle Mariners (+120) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-145) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Mariners are 19-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 18-16 ATS.
Mariners vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Emerson Hancock 3-3, 4.80 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 3-1, 4.55 ERA
Mariners vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -105 | +120 |
| Twins | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -115 | -145 |
Mariners vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 12 away games (+19.50 Units / 162% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+12.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Mitch Garver has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+12.60 Units / 115% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.75 Units / 38% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 17-18 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -6.02% ROI).
- 19-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -1.2% ROI
- 7-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.35 Units / -57.47% ROI
- 26-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.2 Units / 48.21% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 18-16 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 2.26% ROI).
- 20-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 4.97% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -1.23% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -6.92% ROI
Twins vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Twins vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock (SEA) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (9/36) against Emerson Hancock in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Emerson Hancock has allowed a slugging percentage of .826 (19 Total Bases / 23 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .411 — second Percentile.
Emerson Hancock has a strikeout rate of just 8% (3 SO in 36 PAs) versus the bottom of the order this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Emerson Hancock has allowed an OPS of .938 (65 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .690 — sixth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 76% of the time (1,265/1,655) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 77% of the time (949/1,236) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 87% of the time (349/403) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 87% of the time (458/527) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 90-14 (.865) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Mariners are 154-6 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Mariners are 86-5 (.945) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Mariners are 34-36 (.486) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are 15-71 (.174) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Twins are 57-13 (.814) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Twins are 77-14 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Twins are just 16-29 (.356) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have 507 strikeouts in 1,951 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .204 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Mariners hitters have 360 strikeouts in 1,274 PA’s (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .684 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .827 (437 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .673.
Twins hitters have 110 extra-base hits out of 272 total hits (40%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
The Twins are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .224 (312 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Mariners pitchers have walked 509 of 7,250 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.93 (310.1 IP) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 87 of 1,261 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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