- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Braves TV Channel: FDFL | FDSO | FDSE
The Miami Marlins (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Saturday, April 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Marlins are 4-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 3-5 ATS.
Marlins vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 0-1, 13.51 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver 0-1, 4.50 ERA
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -110 | +200 |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -110 | -250 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 65.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+17.00 Units / 243% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.35 Units / 89% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Riley has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+4.90 Units / 163% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+4.50 Units / 75% ROI)
- Nick Allen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.25 Units / 31% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 away games (+14.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 away games (+14.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 135 games (+13.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 150 games (+39.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+1.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 5-3 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 19.5% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 6.67% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 17.68% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -27.49% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 3-5 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -34.88% ROI).
- 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -66.34% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -13.64% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 7.91% ROI
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nick Allen (ATL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Cal Quantrill (MIA) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -118 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .236 (116-for-491) against Cal Quantrill with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OPS of .711 (564 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .510 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill had a strikeout rate of just 15% (19/128) on low non-fastballs in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strike rate of just 57% (370/645) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
AJ Smith-Shawver has thrown off-speed pitches 76% of the time (16/21) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total NonFB; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has thrown low pitches 71% of the time (15/21) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (13/30) against AJ Smith-Shawver this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 1 of AJ Smith-Shawver’s 16 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 6%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 65-55 (.542) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Marlins (27th best runs scored) today.
The Braves are 19-13 (.594) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves were 73-4 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Braves are 24-101 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .129 (31 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .870 (1,425 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.21 (819.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in 2023 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Marlins pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers walked 85 of 1,447 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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