- The Braves are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Braves TV Channel: FDFL | FDSO | FDSE
The Miami Marlins (+135) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-160) on Sunday, April 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Marlins are 5-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 3-6 ATS.
Marlins vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 1-0, 3.73 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Grant Holmes 0-1, 7.21 ERA
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -115 | +135 |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -105 | -160 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+16.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.35 Units / 89% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Austin Riley has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.55 Units / 94% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games at home (+4.90 Units / 163% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 away games (+14.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 away games (+14.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 135 games (+13.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 150 games (+39.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 42 games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 47 games (+1.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 6-3 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 27.73% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 28.65% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 3.9% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -14.14% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 3-6 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -41.91% ROI).
- 1-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.2 Units / -73.02% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -24% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 17.26% ROI
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Grant Holmes (ATL) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 74% (17/23) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has thrown his changeup 37% of the time (14/38) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed 5 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 74% (17/23) against Sandy Alcantara in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .706 (12 GB hits out of 17 GBs) against Grant Holmes with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .258 — first Percentile.
Grant Holmes walked 15 of 282 batters (5%) in the 2024 season — 9th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 9% — 90th Percentile.
Grant Holmes had a strike rate of 72% (146/203) with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of 59% (198/333) against Grant Holmes on sliders in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 117-76 (.606) after a win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Braves were just 7-42 (.143) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Braves were 73-4 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Braves are 99-65 (.604) at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .286 (1,976 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Braves are batting just .031 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .147.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.21 (819.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers walked 556 of 6,269 batters (9%) in the 2024 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
More MLB Reading:
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