- The Cubs are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | BSUN
The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Sunday, April 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Marlins are 5-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 15-6 ATS.
Marlins vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 0-0, 1.50 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks 0-2, 12.97 ERA
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -115 | +105 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -105 | -125 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+5.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.30 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 103% ROI)
- Kyle Hendricks has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.75 Units / 31% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 7-15 against the Run Line (-12.6 Units / -43.83% ROI).
- 5-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.25 Units / -46.78% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 5.22% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -13.09% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 15-6 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 23.23% ROI).
- 13-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 19.49% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -8.42% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.2 Units / 0.87% ROI
Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (77/431) against Edward Cabrera since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 100 of 747 batters (13%) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 76% (64/84) against Edward Cabrera’s changeup since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 30 of 207 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has allowed an OBP of .812 (16 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .330 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .490 (25-for-51) against Kyle Hendricks on pitches in the strike zone this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .276 — second Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed a slugging percentage of .927 (38 Total Bases / 41 ABs) on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed an OPS of 2.449 (16 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .742 — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 129-10 (.928) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Marlins are just 118-18 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Marlins are 14-158 (.081) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are just 23-79 (.225) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are 37-18 (.673) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Cubs are 21-18 (.538) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Cubs are just 35-38 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are 53-30 (.639) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .251 (359 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .530 (359 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .279 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .526 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .899 (178 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Cubs hitters are slugging .462 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Cubs are batting just .183 with two outs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 98 of 875 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.44 (120.2 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .232 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .207 against Cubs pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
The Cubs have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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