- The Mets are -275 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: FDFL | SNY
The Miami Marlins (+220) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-275) on Monday, April 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 5-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 4-5 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 1-0, 3.73 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga 0-1, 3.60 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | O 7 -102 | +220 |
| Mets | -1.5 -120 | U 7 -118 | -275 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 67.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+16.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Derek Hill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.85 Units / 78% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+14.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+9.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Siri has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 20 games at home (+7.55 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 away games (+14.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 away games (+14.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 135 games (+13.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 116 games (+22.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+17.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games at home (+14.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+12.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 6-3 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 27.73% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 28.65% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 3.9% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -14.14% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 4-5 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -14.34% ROI).
- 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 19.22% ROI
- 2-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -58.42% ROI
- 7-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 49.48% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Siri (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Valente Bellozo (MIA) | 2.5 -190 | 2.5 +140 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 74% (17/23) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed 5 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .095 (2-for-21) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — 92nd Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has thrown his changeup 37% of the time (14/38) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .111 (36-for-324) against Kodai Senga with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 97th Percentile.
Kodai Senga allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (54 Total Bases / 324 ABs) with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — 97th Percentile.
Kodai Senga had a strike rate of just 61% (1,699/2,795) in 2023 — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Hitters swung at 53% of Kodai Senga’s pitches (461/863) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 59% — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are just 17-67 (.202) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mets were just 62-16 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets are batting just .128 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Mets hitters are slugging .436 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .328 (1,711 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
The Marlins have allowed 5.92 runs per game (521/88) at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.39.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 1.91 (80.0 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Mets pitchers have walked 267 of 2,937 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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