- The Mets are -275 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: FDFL | SNY
The Miami Marlins (+220) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-275) on Tuesday, April 8, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 5-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 5-5 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Connor Gillispie 0-1, 3.60 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 0-1, 2.80 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -102 | O 7 -110 | +220 |
| Mets | -1.5 -118 | U 7 -110 | -275 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 68.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+15.00 Units / 167% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Derek Hill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.85 Units / 78% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.85 Units / 76% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+27.00 Units / 338% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 away games (+14.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 away games (+14.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 135 games (+13.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 116 games (+22.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+17.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games at home (+14.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+12.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 6-4 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 17.08% ROI).
- 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 16.1% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -6.99% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -3.32% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 5-5 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -5.78% ROI).
- 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 22.33% ROI
- 2-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -62.83% ROI
- 8-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.8 Units / 54.21% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Connor Gillispie (MIA) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Gillispie has allowed an OBP of just .143 (21 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .307 — 96th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .105 (2-for-19) against Connor Gillispie this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 92nd Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 39% (13/33) against Connor Gillispie this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Connor Gillispie has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (30/42) this season — 5th highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 62% — 92nd Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 75% (56/75) against Clay Holmes in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 70% (54/77) against Clay Holmes in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes since last season — 3rd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets were 74-22 (.771) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets were 28-24 (.538) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Marlins (27th best runs scored) today.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins were just 4-17 (.190) against the run line (-61.9% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Marlins hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had an OBP of .329 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Mets are batting just .135 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters are slugging .437 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.21 (819.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 1.72 (89.0 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 623 of 6,463 batters (10%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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