- The Mets are -225 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: FDFL | SNY
The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-220) on Wednesday, April 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 5-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 6-5 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 0-1, 3.09 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 2-0, 0.84 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -125 | O 7 -105 | +180 |
| Mets | -1.5 +105 | U 7 -115 | -220 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 66.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+14.00 Units / 140% ROI)
- Max Meyer has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Dane Myers has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.90 Units / 98% ROI)
- Derek Hill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.85 Units / 76% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+27.00 Units / 338% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+14.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 away games (+14.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 135 games (+13.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 75 away games (+13.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 116 games (+22.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+17.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+14.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games at home (+14.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+12.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 6-5 against the Run Line (+1.05 Units / 8.08% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 5.78% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 1.59% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -12.07% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 6-5 against the Run Line (+0.2 Units / 1.32% ROI).
- 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 24.38% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -49% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.75 Units / 40.43% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 45% (14/31) against Max Meyer this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Max Meyer has thrown his slider 69% of the time (38/55) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Max Meyer has thrown his slider 49% of the time (90/185) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .375 (6-for-16) against Max Meyer when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — seventh Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .059 (1-for-17) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .284 — 100th Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed a slugging percentage of just .159 (10 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on elevated fastballs in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .369 — 99th Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OPS of just .425 (40 PA’s) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .648 — 92nd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins are just 34-54 (.386) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins are just 41-15 (.732) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 13-55 (.191) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Mets are 8-63 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets were 28-24 (.538) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Marlins (27th best runs scored) today.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Marlins are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-56.8% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .329 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters are slugging .437 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Mets hitters have just 76 strikeouts in 403 PA’s (19%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.21 (819.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 2.02 (98.0 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Mets pitchers in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% versus the bottom of the order this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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