- The Marlins are +105 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: FDFL | MAS2
The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-125) on Friday, June 13, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Marlins are 25-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 36-32 ATS.
Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 2-2, 4.02 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 4-6, 4.42 ERA
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +160 | O 9 -120 | +105 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -210 | U 9 +100 | -125 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+20.40 Units / 291% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.10 Units / 71% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 away games (+6.45 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+14.00 Units / 350% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 49% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 away games (+4.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+12.29 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.92 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 games (+6.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+4.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 34-32 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -3.41% ROI).
- 25-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -9 Units / -12.72% ROI
- 35-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 31-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -10.21% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 36-32 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -2.9% ROI).
- 30-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.37 Units / -0.52% ROI
- 31-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -9.89% ROI
- 35-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 1.2% ROI
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 14% (18/133) against Edward Cabrera in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera walked 29 of 166 batters (17%) versus the top of the order in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Edward Cabrera walked 19 of 106 batters (18%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 15% of opponent 1-2-3 hitters since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OBP of .393 (117 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — first Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has not allowed a runner to reach base (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .285 — 100th Percentile.
8 of Mitchell Parker’s 23 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 97th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has walked 13% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 60-14 (.811) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Marlins are just 55-17 (.764) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Marlins are just 119-21 (.850) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 86-108 (.441) at home since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 171-220 (.436) since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 30-106 (.221) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
The Nationals are just 164-193 (.458) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .501 (193 PA’s) against RHP this month (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .239 (332 PA’s) this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .234 (193 PA’s) against RHP this month (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.64 (273.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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