- The Nationals are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: FDFL | MAS2
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-175) on Sunday, June 15, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Marlins are 27-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 36-34 ATS.
Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 0-1, 12.01 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 3-5, 2.92 ERA
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -110 | +145 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -110 | -175 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 61.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+18.40 Units / 204% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+8.65 Units / 58% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+13.00 Units / 260% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 away games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.30 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.89 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.92 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 27 games (+3.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 35 games at home (+2.45 Units / 6% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 36-32 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.75% ROI).
- 27-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -9.47% ROI
- 36-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.13% ROI
- 32-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -9.92% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 36-34 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -5.47% ROI).
- 30-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.77 Units / -3.79% ROI
- 32-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.5 Units / -9.73% ROI
- 36-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 1.17% ROI
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez (MIA) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -155 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 34% (257/764) against Eury Perez in 2023 — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Eury Perez allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (47 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .442 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 14% (7/52) against Eury Perez on inside fastballs in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Eury Perez allowed an OPS of 1.455 (70 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.088 — second Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 35% (114 SO in 328 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .562 (9 GB hits out of 16 GBs) against MacKenzie Gore with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 30% (141/473) versus MacKenzie Gore in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 56% (57 SO in 101 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 28-59 (.322) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 57-17 (.770) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Marlins are just 121-21 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 14-20 (.400) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .556.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.217) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .369.
The Nationals are just 52-179 (.225) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Nationals are just 164-195 (.456) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 39% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .354 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .267 (417 PA’s) this month (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.66 (291.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Nationals pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
More MLB Reading:
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