- The Nationals are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-145) on Friday, September 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Marlins are 55-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 81-65 ATS.
Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 4-6, 4.96 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 3-7, 3.81 ERA
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -105 | +120 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -115 | -145 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 38 games (+30.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+17.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+15.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+15.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.25 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jacob Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 13 games at home (+16.00 Units / 123% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+12.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Andres Chaparro has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games (+15.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 120 games (+14.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 69 away games (+14.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 away games (+9.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 52 games (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 138 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 72 games (+5.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 138 games (+4.75 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 69-78 against the Run Line (-30.11 Units / -15.72% ROI).
- 55-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -11.15% ROI
- 79-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.25 Units / 7.54% ROI
- 61-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.85 Units / -15.44% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 81-65 against the Run Line (+4.93 Units / 2.56% ROI).
- 65-81 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 0.97% ROI
- 69-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -3.92% ROI
- 69-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.82 Units / -4.83% ROI
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 109 of 791 batters (14%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 32 of 195 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 74 of 515 batters (14%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 44 of 326 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Davidjohn Herz has not allowed a home run in any of the last 26.0 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 83.1.
Davidjohn Herz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 20.0 innings pitched — Brusdar Graterol has the longest active streak at 29.2.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (116/369) against Davidjohn Herz on fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 15 AB’s against Davidjohn Herz this month (1 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 32-13 (.711) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Marlins are just 21-18 (.538) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Marlins are just 5-36 (.122) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Marlins are just 17-30 (.362) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Nationals are just 56-230 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (4,490 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .948 (2,131 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.
Nationals hitters have just 662 strikeouts in 3,472 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .302 (1,556 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.14 (697.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins have allowed 5.84 runs per game (438/75) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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