- The Nationals are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-145) on Saturday, September 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Marlins are 55-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 81-65 ATS.
Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 2-3, 3.57 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 5-13, 5.62 ERA
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -120 | +120 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +145 | U 9 +100 | -145 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+7.40 Units / 93% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Valente Bellozo has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+6.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.60 Units / 290% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Patrick Corbin has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 69-78 against the Run Line (-30.11 Units / -15.72% ROI).
- 55-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -11.15% ROI
- 79-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.25 Units / 7.54% ROI
- 61-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.85 Units / -15.44% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 81-65 against the Run Line (+4.93 Units / 2.56% ROI).
- 65-81 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 0.97% ROI
- 69-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -3.92% ROI
- 69-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.82 Units / -4.83% ROI
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Valente Bellozo (MIA) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Valente Bellozo has allowed a slugging percentage of .565 (13 Total Bases / 23 ABs) with two-strikes in his last two starts — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .222 — third Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has a strikeout rate of just 6% (3 SO in 47 PAs) this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has not struck out any hitters in 18 PA’s when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has not struck out any hitters in 18 PA’s when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .312 (236-for-756) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .233 (70-for-300) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .318 (163-for-513) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .309 (72-for-233) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 32-13 (.711) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Marlins are just 21-18 (.538) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Marlins are just 7-6 (.538) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Marlins are just 45-29 (.608) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 35-57 (.380) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 57-230 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (4,518 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .219 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Marlins hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 941 total hits (just 28%) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 662 strikeouts in 3,477 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,059 strikeouts in 5,424 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .946 (2,136 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .974 (3,223 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.080.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 506 of 5,705 batters (9%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.14 (697.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.14 runs per game (760/148) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in late innings since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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