- The Phillies are -220 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 10.5 Runs
- Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: FDFL | NSPA | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-220) on Saturday, April 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 8-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 12-8 ATS.
Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 1-1, 5.79 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 1-1, 2.30 ERA
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -110 | O 10.5 -110 | +180 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | U 10.5 -110 | -220 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 60.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Mervis has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+17.90 Units / 224% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+12.25 Units / 83% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+11.80 Units / 295% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games at home (+9.05 Units / 108% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 87 of their last 162 games (+13.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 away games (+13.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 81 away games (+4.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 81 games at home (+15.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+9.63 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 81 games at home (+4.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 8-11 against the Run Line (-4.7 Units / -20.17% ROI).
- 8-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -2.03% ROI
- 12-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 18.65% ROI
- 7-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -29.24% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 12-8 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 7.65% ROI).
- 12-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 8.28% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -13.96% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 5.96% ROI
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill (MIA) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OBP of .326 (580 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (79/376) against Cal Quantrill with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 19% (60/319) against Cal Quantrill with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (116/248) of opposing batters left-handed hitters in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has allowed an OPS of .938 (448 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: .708 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 17% (107/611) against Taijuan Walker in 2023 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker had a strike rate of just 61% (1,722/2,837) in 2023 — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 30% (95/312) against Taijuan Walker on low breaking pitches in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins are just 44-16 (.733) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .861.
The Marlins are just 36-58 (.383) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 3-6 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Phillies are 12-127 (.086) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Phillies were 28-22 (.560) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins are just 5-19 (.208) against the run line (-60.4% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Marlins are just 18-52 (.257) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .457.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .343 (2,172 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .782 (4,041 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have allowed 5.97 runs per game (561/94) at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have walked 12% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have picked-off 5 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Phillies won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
More MLB Reading:
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