- The Phillies are -325 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: FDFL | NSPA | WBFS
The Miami Marlins (+270) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-325) on Sunday, April 20, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 8-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 12-9 ATS.
Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Connor Gillispie 0-2, 6.64 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 2-0, 2.32 ERA
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +2.5 -135 | O 8 -115 | +270 |
| Phillies | -2.5 +110 | U 8 -105 | -325 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 68.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Eric Wagaman has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.00 Units / 117% ROI)
- Liam Hicks has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+6.50 Units / 162% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+10.80 Units / 216% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games at home (+10.05 Units / 103% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 87 of their last 162 games (+13.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 81 away games (+10.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 81 away games (+4.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 81 games at home (+15.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+9.63 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 81 games at home (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 81 games at home (+2.00 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 84 of their last 167 games (+1.00 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 9-11 against the Run Line (-3.65 Units / -15.02% ROI).
- 8-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -6.75% ROI
- 13-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 22.17% ROI
- 7-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.05 Units / -32.87% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 12-9 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 2.62% ROI).
- 13-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 10.67% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -9.01% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.2 Units / 0.87% ROI
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Gillispie (MIA) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Gillispie has allowed a slugging percentage of .808 (21 Total Bases / 26 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .427 — fourth Percentile.
Connor Gillispie has a strikeout rate of just 14% (5 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 13th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (6/21) against Connor Gillispie in two-strike counts this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Connor Gillispie has a strike rate of 76% (38/50) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
30% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are in the zone since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
28% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — fourth Percentile.
28% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — 2nd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 48% — fourth Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 57% (29 SO in 51 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins are just 44-16 (.733) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Marlins are just 7-49 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 3-6 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .110.
The Phillies are 112-62 (.644) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Phillies are 93-18 (.838) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins are just 2-13 (.133) against the run line (-67.3% ROI) as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .344 (2,192 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Phillies are batting .272 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .783 (4,061 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have picked-off 5 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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