- The Pirates are -140 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Pirates TV Channel: FDFL | SNPT
The Miami Marlins (+115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) on Tuesday, June 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 24-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 30-36 ATS.
Marlins vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 3-6, 5.60 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-8, 4.13 ERA
Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -140 |
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+22.40 Units / 448% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.70 Units / 70% ROI)
- Liam Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 away games (+5.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+13.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.55 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 33-31 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -2.86% ROI).
- 24-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.3 Units / -13.53% ROI
- 35-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.2 Units / 3.08% ROI
- 29-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -13.42% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 30-36 against the Run Line (-12.95 Units / -14.94% ROI).
- 27-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -12.03% ROI
- 26-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.6 Units / -21.18% ROI
- 38-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.55 Units / 12.95% ROI
Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .373 (44-for-118) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OPS of .691 (678 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .507 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OBP of .323 (678 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (116/248) of opposing batters left-handed hitters in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller allowed a slugging percentage of .563 (138 Total Bases / 245 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a SLG of just .292 vs right-handed batters (eighth best)– 89th Percentile but .455 vs left-handed batters this season (eighth worst among qualified SPs)– 13th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .350 (389 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .314 (77-for-245) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins are just 58-14 (.806) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Marlins are just 13-4 (.765) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 9-64 (.123) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters averaged just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance against LHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have struck out in 41% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Pirates are batting just .123 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 28% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.80 (256.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 51% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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