- The Pirates are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Pirates TV Channel: FDFL | SNPT
The Miami Marlins (+130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 25-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 30-37 ATS.
Marlins vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 3-6, 5.60 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 4-3, 3.49 ERA
Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 +100 | +130 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +130 | U 8.5 -120 | -155 |
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+21.40 Units / 357% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.30 Units / 62% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+7.10 Units / 79% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 37% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 away games (+8.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 67 games (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 34-31 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -1.58% ROI).
- 25-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -11.47% ROI
- 35-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 1.52% ROI
- 30-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -11.79% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 30-37 against the Run Line (-13.95 Units / -15.91% ROI).
- 27-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.4 Units / -13.77% ROI
- 26-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -22.34% ROI
- 39-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.55 Units / 14.09% ROI
Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Cal Quantrill (MIA) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -150 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OBP of .323 (678 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .373 (44-for-118) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .233 (138-for-593) against Cal Quantrill with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OPS of 1.044 (125 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .687 — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (138/276) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (477/1,046) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (360/767) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (138/276) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are just 58-14 (.806) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Marlins are just 13-4 (.765) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 9-64 (.123) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates are just 8-49 (.140) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins were just 4-17 (.190) against the run line (-61.9% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Marlins are just 23-56 (.291) against the run line (-41.3% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have struck out in 35% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 36% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .324 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.67 (265.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 53% of the time this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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