- The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | SNY
The New York Mets (+110) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-130) on Thursday, March 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Houston, TX, USA.
This preseason, the Mets were 9-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros were 9-10 ATS.
Mets vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 +100 | +110 |
| Astros | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 -120 | -130 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 67% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+4.05 Units / 203% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.70 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+4.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Hits Allowed Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.05 Units / 94% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 116 games (+22.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 117 games (+16.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 134 games (+11.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 89 away games (+6.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 away games (+3.77 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 124 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 90 games (+8.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this preseason, the Mets were 9-12 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -17.03% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -9.77% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.83% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -8.23% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this preseason, the Astros were 9-10 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -7.11% ROI).
- 12-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 16.1% ROI
- 9-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.8 Units / -8.74% ROI
- 10-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +110 |
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -150 |
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are just 128-19 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Mets are just 15-67 (.183) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mets were 16-8 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2024 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2024 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 93-68 (.578) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Astros are 142-15 (.904) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had an OBP of .343 (764 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .322 (9,424 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Mets answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scored in late innings last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,587/18,414 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.73 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Astros are batting .267 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,177 of 12,182 batters (10%) since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in 2023 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 261 of 2,857 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (2115.1 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
The Astros have allowed 3.76 runs per game (910/242) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
More MLB Reading:
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