- The Astros are -125 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Astros TV Channel: ATV
The New York Mets (+105) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-125) on Friday, March 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX, USA.
This season, the Mets are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 1-2 ATS.
Mets vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -105 | +105 |
| Astros | -1.5 +170 | U 8 -115 | -125 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games (+5.75 Units / 144% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Walks Over in his last 3 games (+4.40 Units / 147% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Hunter Brown has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 110% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 116 games (+22.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 117 games (+16.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 134 games (+11.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 89 away games (+6.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 away games (+3.77 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 124 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 90 games (+8.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 1-1 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -25.88% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -6.98% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -8.89% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 1-2 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -6.67% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -44.87% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -38.46% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 23.88% ROI
Astros vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Astros vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Astros vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Astros vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill had a strike rate of just 56% (249/446) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed a slugging percentage of just .159 (10 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on elevated fastballs in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .369 — 99th Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed a .545 SLG vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– 15th Percentile and just .107 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (fourth best among qualified SPs)– 93rd Percentile.
Opponents batted .392 (40-for-102) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .263 — first Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 29% (69/238) against Hunter Brown on fastballs in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .123 (45-for-367) against Hunter Brown with two-strikes in the 2024 season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents batted .276 (69-for-250) against Hunter Brown when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 11th Percentile.
Hunter Brown allowed an OBP of .339 (333 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — third Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2024 — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2024 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Mets were just 69-6 (.920) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2024 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mets are just 128-19 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2024 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 98-78 (.557) after a win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Astros are 45-39 (.536) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Mariners (21st best runs scored) today.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .235 at home in 2023 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .256 (9,888 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (12,964 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .346 (2,168 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,587/18,414 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have just 972 strikeouts in 5,329 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters struck out just 327 times in 1,801 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (2115.1 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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