- Mets / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | MLBN
The New York Mets (+100) visit CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on Wednesday, March 6, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in West Palm Beach, FL.
This season, the Mets are 4-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 5-4 ATS.
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Mets | +100 |
| Astros | -120 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tim Locastro has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.95 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 96% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games at home (+8.68 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 5-3 against the Run Line (+2.2 Units / 22.29% ROI).
- 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.66 Units / -6.13% ROI
- 0-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.62 Units / -75.06% ROI
- 6-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 68.18% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Astros are 5-4 against the Run Line (+0.53 Units / 4.42% ROI).
- 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 12.19% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.05 Units / -39.82% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.54 Units / 26.32% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.2 MPH against his fastballs since last season (389 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 90.6
Jose Quintana induced opposing hitters to ground into 9 double plays in 54 opportunities (17%) in the 2023 season — tied for 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 35% (17/48) versus Jose Quintana on low breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 62% (627/1,016) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 11th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez located 41% of his pitches inside (1,210/2,952) in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 47% of his pitches inside (361/767) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 41% of his pitches inside (1,210/2,952) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Framber Valdez had third base stolen on him 8 times in the 2023 season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 151-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 11-109 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 15-11 (.577) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 79-47 (.627) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 163-11 (.937) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters chased just 21% pitches when the pitcher was behind in the count in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 60% at home since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 63% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Astros are 21-5 (.808) against the run line (28.4% ROI) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Astros hitters slugged .460 on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The longest HR allowed by the Mets pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 455.0 feet — — tied for 3rd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Astros won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
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