- The Mets are -130 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Mets vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Blue Jays TV Channel: SNY | RSN
The New York Mets (-130) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+110) on Tuesday, September 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Mets are 79-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 72-73 ATS.
Mets vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 9-1, 2.76 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 9-13, 4.32 ERA
Mets vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +130 | O 8 -110 | -130 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -110 | +110 |
Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+18.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.10 Units / 187% ROI)
- David Peterson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+11.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- DJ Stewart has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.40 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 48 games (+33.15 Units / 69% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+13.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+13.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 50 games (+13.10 Units / 26% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 85 games (+18.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 96 games (+16.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 86 games (+12.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 88 games (+11.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 47 games at home (+16.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games at home (+2.10 Units / 8% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 73-71 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -0.49% ROI).
- 79-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 2.92% ROI
- 70-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -3.23% ROI
- 68-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -8 Units / -5.17% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 72-73 against the Run Line (-13.5 Units / -6.9% ROI).
- 68-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -9.04% ROI
- 75-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.4 Units / 1.52% ROI
- 66-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.9 Units / -10.64% ROI
Blue Jays vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Blue Jays vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Blue Jays vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 54% (95/176) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.1 MPH on the 160 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.
David Peterson has walked 112 of 1,022 right-handed batters (11%) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
David Peterson has walked 36 of 313 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (172 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 80.7
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (30/198) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an OBP of .359 (251 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — fifth Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has averaged 70.8 MPH on curveballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 79.7 — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Mets are 21-14 (.600) after a road loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Mets are just 14-64 (.179) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mets are 6-53 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Mets are 128-29 (.815) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Blue Jays are 39-34 (.534) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Blue Jays are just 14-67 (.173) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Blue Jays are just 16-37 (.302) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Blue Jays are just 20-104 (.161) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .347 (2,087 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Mets hitters have just 3 strikeouts in 41 PA’s (7%) against LHP over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets hitters are slugging .439 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .741 (9,017 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 1,946 strikeouts in 10,206 PA’s (19%) in righty-righty matchups since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .258 (9,231 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .743 (13,924 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .324 (13,924 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 55% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 286 of 4,185 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed an OBP of .492 (63 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Blue Jays pitchers have 516 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 3rd most in MLB.
Blue Jays vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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