- The Mets are -130 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Mets vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Blue Jays TV Channel: SNY | RSN | MLBN
The New York Mets (-130) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+110) on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Mets are 79-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 73-73 ATS.
Mets vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 11-5, 3.46 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Bowden Francis 8-4, 3.71 ERA
Mets vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -105 | -130 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -115 | +110 |
Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+17.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- DJ Stewart has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+12.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+12.10 Units / 151% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+10.05 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 49 games (+32.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+13.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+12.55 Units / 50% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 86 games (+16.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 97 games (+15.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 87 games (+11.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 away games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 89 games (+10.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+16.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games at home (+3.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 73-72 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -1.03% ROI).
- 79-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 2.19% ROI
- 70-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -3.21% ROI
- 68-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -8 Units / -5.13% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 73-73 against the Run Line (-12.5 Units / -6.34% ROI).
- 69-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.9 Units / -8.38% ROI
- 75-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.4 Units / 1.51% ROI
- 66-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.9 Units / -10.57% ROI
Blue Jays vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Blue Jays vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Blue Jays vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Bowden Francis (TOR) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (831/1,788) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .192 (87-for-453) against Sean Manaea this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 93rd Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 27 of 252 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (154/412) against Sean Manaea this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 16th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .105 (4-for-38) against Bowden Francis on low fastballs since last season — 2nd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .271 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (28/164) against Bowden Francis with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 27% — third Percentile.
Bowden Francis has walked 27 of 473 batters (6%) since last season — tied for 13th best among among 175 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .119 (29-for-243) against Bowden Francis with two-strikes since last season — 5th best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .162 — 94th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Mets are just 14-65 (.177) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mets are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 8-46 (.148) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 62-6 (.912) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Blue Jays are 40-34 (.541) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Blue Jays are just 8-27 (.229) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Blue Jays are 27-15 (.643) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are just 14-67 (.173) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .764 (1,437 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters are slugging .439 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Mets hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
The Mets have been successful on 56% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .420 against RHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Blue Jays hitters have just 1,947 strikeouts in 10,214 PA’s (19%) in righty-righty matchups since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 2,883 strikeouts in 13,936 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .324 (13,936 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% against Mets pitchers this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 287 of 4,194 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH (3,665 batted balls) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Toronto Blue Jays – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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