- The Braves are -190 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Braves Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mets / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | SNY | MLBN | ESPN+
The New York Mets (+155) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-190) on Tuesday, April 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Mets are 4-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 4-5 ATS.
Mets vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Adrian Houser 0-0, 1.80 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 0-0, 1.50 ERA
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -120 | O 9.5 -110 | +155 |
| Braves | -1.5 +100 | U 9.5 -110 | -190 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 60.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.45 Units / 92% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.35 Units / 106% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.65 Units / 81% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 3-7 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -37.83% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.55 Units / -21.34% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -23.39% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 13.96% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 4-5 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -11.42% ROI).
- 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 2.93% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.8 Units / 38.78% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -46.5% ROI
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Taylor | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Marte | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Tromp | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Narvaez | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lopez | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Houser | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 73% of the time (738/1,007) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (412/560) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 63% (39/62) against Adrian Houser when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 13% (10/77) versus Adrian Houser with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 25 of 139 left-handed batters (18%) since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — first Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez walked 23 of 124 left-handed batters (18%) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has walked 23 of 124 left-handed batters (18%) since last season — 4th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 11% — fifth Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez walked 23 of 124 left-handed batters (18%) in the 2023 season — 5th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 11% — fifth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are just 7-40 (.149) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Mets are 155-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are 153-11 (.933) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Mets are just 15-27 (.357) after a road loss since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 47-42 (.528) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves were 30-46 (.395) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Braves are 26-17 (.605) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .282 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .577 (292 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have drawn 5 walks in 92 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters are slugging .474 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Braves hitters are slugging .608 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .802 (9,525 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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