- The Braves are -135 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Braves TV Channel: SNY | FDSO | FDSE | MLBN
The New York Mets (+110) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-135) on Tuesday, June 17, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Mets are 45-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 30-39 ATS.
Mets vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 5-2, 2.50 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 5-4, 3.10 ERA
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -110 | +110 |
| Braves | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -110 | -135 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+13.30 Units / 166% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+14.10 Units / 176% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 21 games (+13.05 Units / 54% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 72 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 67 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 58 games (+8.99 Units / 12% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+11.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.82 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+0.45 Units / 2% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 39-33 against the Run Line (+6.19 Units / 6.6% ROI).
- 45-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 6.61% ROI
- 28-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.55 Units / -23.27% ROI
- 42-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.1 Units / 14.1% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 30-39 against the Run Line (-9.32 Units / -11.3% ROI).
- 31-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.53 Units / -23.15% ROI
- 28-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -16.36% ROI
- 37-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.4 Units / 8.37% ROI
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| David Peterson (NYM) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (132/229) against David Peterson this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.8 MPH on the 245 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 87.7.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 54% (59/109) against David Peterson’s slider since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of 69% (226/328) in two strike counts this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 90th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Schwellenbach has a strike rate of 72% (424/586) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown 59% of his pitches in the strike zone (348/586) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach’s K:BB ratio is 17.0 (51/3) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.3 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .159 (7-for-44) against Spencer Schwellenbach when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .312 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 22-9 (.710) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets are 15-75 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 117-79 (.597) at home since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Braves are just 22-7 (.759) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .864.
The Braves are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.
The Braves are 51-42 (.548) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season They play the Mets (Ranks second runs allowed) today.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have struck out in just 20% of their PA’s against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters slugged .440 against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Mets hitters are slugging .427 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .218 with runners on base since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters slugged .495 against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (4,824 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mets have won 42% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 41% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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