- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Mets vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Cardinals TV Channel: FDMW | SNY
The New York Mets (-145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+120) on Saturday, May 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO, MO.
This season, the Mets are 22-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 15-18 ATS.
Mets vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 3-2, 1.71 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde 1-3, 4.78 ERA
Mets vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | O 8.5 -118 | -145 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -145 | U 8.5 -102 | +120 |
Mets vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.50 Units / 212% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.25 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+12.00 Units / 171% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Erick Fedde has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+9.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+6.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+4.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 31 games (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 19-14 against the Run Line (+6.45 Units / 15.49% ROI).
- 22-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 13.99% ROI
- 12-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -27.85% ROI
- 20-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.75 Units / 18.67% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 15-18 against the Run Line (-8.8 Units / -18.39% ROI).
- 14-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -15.03% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 10.07% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.95 Units / -19.12% ROI
Cardinals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Cardinals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cardinals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Cardinals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Erick Fedde (STL) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has a strikeout rate of 70% (19 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Tylor Megill had a strike rate of just 56% (249/446) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .392 (40-for-102) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .263 — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed an OBP of .475 (120 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .325 — 0 Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Erick Fedde has walked 18% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 51% (631/1,250) when ahead in the count since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 57% (597/1,039) in two strike counts since last season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strikeout rate of just 9% (5 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 8-68 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Mets are 13-62 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Mets are 9-2 (.818) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cardinals are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.
The Cardinals are just 10-154 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Cardinals are just 16-143 (.101) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Cardinals are just 53-59 (.473) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .276 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .776 (1,886 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .329 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters slugged .440 against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting .205 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .149.
The Cardinals are batting .354 on changeups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .258 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Cardinals are batting .288 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Mets pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mets have have still managed to win 67% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mets have have still managed to win 67% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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