- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Mets vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNY
The New York Mets (-125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ, AZ.
This season, the Mets are 23-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 18-18 ATS.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga 3-2, 1.38 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 3-1, 4.07 ERA
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -110 | -125 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 -110 | +105 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 60% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.70 Units / 242% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+5.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+3.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 20-17 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 9.56% ROI).
- 23-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 7.17% ROI
- 14-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.4 Units / -25.49% ROI
- 22-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 15.89% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 18-18 against the Run Line (-1.15 Units / -2.53% ROI).
- 19-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -1.22% ROI
- 17-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -1.89% ROI
- 16-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -7.22% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga (NYM) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .600 (9-for-15) against Kodai Senga on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .280 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted just .111 (36-for-324) against Kodai Senga with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 97th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has allowed a slugging percentage of just .078 (4 Total Bases / 51 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .362 — 100th Percentile.
Kodai Senga had a strike rate of just 59% (507/863) in two strike counts in 2023 — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — sixth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of .944 (17 Total Bases / 18 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .427 — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed an OBP of just .159 (63 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .183 (11 Total Bases / 60 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .375 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .117 (7-for-60) against Merrill Kelly when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 8-71 (.101) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 13-3 (.812) at home this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are 22-131 (.143) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Diamondbacks were 5-59 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Diamondbacks are 149-36 (.801) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Diamondbacks are 40-38 (.513) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have struck out in just 10% of it’s PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .804 (248 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .681.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .329 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters are slugging .442 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 16% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Diamondbacks have scored 1.79 runs per game (354/198) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
The Diamondbacks have won just 29% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 76%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mets have have still managed to win 62% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in 2023 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mets have have still managed to win 62% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH (4,288 batted balls) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
More MLB Reading:
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