Mets vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 21

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Cleveland Guardians catcher Bo Naylor sits near the bullpen during spring training baseball workouts in Goodyear, Ariz., Friday, Feb. 16, 2024.
(AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 21, 2024, 11:02 AM
  • The Guardians are -130 favorites vs the Mets
  • Mets vs Guardians Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Mets / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | SNY

The New York Mets (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-130) on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Mets are 21-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 29-19 ATS.

Mets vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Mets starting pitcher: Adrian Houser 0-3, 7.30 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 2-4, 5.17 ERA

Mets vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -185O 9 -105+110
Guardians -1.5 +150U 9 -115-130

Mets vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 46 games (+14.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+13.15 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 16 games at home (+27.00 Units / 169% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 47 games (+13.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+13.05 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 32 games (+12.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 away games (+3.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+12.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 48 games (+11.82 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 21-26 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -10.68% ROI).

  • 21-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -10.95% ROI
  • 23-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -2.61% ROI
  • 22-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -3 Units / -6.11% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 29-19 against the Run Line (+12.85 Units / 21.65% ROI).

  • 31-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.82 Units / 18.95% ROI
  • 23-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -4.42% ROI
  • 23-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -4.1% ROI

Guardians vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
J.D Martinez (NYM) 0.5 +300 0.5 -375
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 +350 0.5 -450
Pete Alonso (NYM) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Josh Naylor (CLE) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550

Guardians vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Naylor (CLE) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Will Brennan (CLE) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Andres Gimenez (CLE) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Pete Alonso (NYM) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Guardians vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 0.5 +110 0.5 -150
Josh Naylor (CLE) 0.5 +115 0.5 -155
J.D Martinez (NYM) 0.5 +125 0.5 -165
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) 0.5 +155 0.5 -200
Francisco Lindor (NYM) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Guardians vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) 4.5 +115 4.5 -150
Adrian Houser (NYM) 3.5 +160 3.5 -210

Adrian Houser has walked 23 of 157 batters (15%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (505/703) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 59% (51/86) against Adrian Houser when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (126/616) against Adrian Houser since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .460 (87-for-189) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .335 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .735 (114 Total Bases / 155 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .303 (20-for-66) against Carlos Carrasco when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 10th Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has a strikeout rate of just 14% (11 SO in 76 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 5th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 10th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Mets are just 9-47 (.161) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

The Mets are just 4-90 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.

The Mets are just 8-141 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Mets are just 8-83 (.088) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Guardians are 36-128 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.

The Guardians are 25-135 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Guardians are 9-85 (.096) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Guardians are 12-146 (.076) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Mets are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .609 (885 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .803 (340 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.050.

The Mets are batting just .207 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.

The Guardians are batting just .246 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.

Guardians hitters have just 1,842 strikeouts in 10,111 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers have walked 55 of 425 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have walked 207 of 1,824 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have walked 195 of 1,837 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have walked 16 of 109 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .180 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .256.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 21% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Guardians vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
  • Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
  • Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
  • Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
  • Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
  • Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
  • Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
  • Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
  • James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
  • Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
  • David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
  • Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.