- The Mets are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | SNY
The New York Mets (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on Tuesday, April 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 2-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 3-2 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 0-0, 3.86 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -105 | -160 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 7.5 -115 | +135 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 58.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+6.50 Units / 217% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.20 Units / 103% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+5.20 Units / 173% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+25.00 Units / 250% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+7.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 116 games (+22.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 117 games (+16.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 134 games (+11.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 89 away games (+6.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 away games (+3.77 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 67 games at home (+27.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 67 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 3-1 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 12.41% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.99% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -54.84% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 45.78% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 3-2 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 14.5% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 23.81% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 12.28% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -22.64% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 5.5 -118 | 5.5 -110 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (54 Total Bases / 324 ABs) with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .111 (36-for-324) against Kodai Senga with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 97th Percentile.
Kodai Senga had a strike rate of just 61% (1,699/2,795) in 2023 — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Kodai Senga threw his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (560/1,070) of the time in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 78% (7/9) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 52% (13/25) against Sandy Alcantara in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
54% of Sandy Alcantara’s strikeouts came on 97+ MPH fastballs in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (8/20) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are just 15-67 (.183) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mets were 16-8 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Twins (11th best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 26-20 (.565) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 9-7 (.562) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have 11 extra-base hits out of 17 total hits (65%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Mets hitters are slugging .480 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mets hitters have 4 extra-base hits out of 6 total hits (67%) versus relief pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .445 (43 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have 877 extra-base hits out of 2,809 total hits (just 31%) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Mets pitchers in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 267 of 2,891 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have allowed 5.97 runs per game (513/86) at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
More MLB Reading:
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