- The Mets are -220 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | SNY
The New York Mets (-220) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+180) on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 2-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 4-2 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 0-1, 3.86 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Connor Gillispie 0-1, 5.41 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -130 | O 8.5 +100 | -220 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -120 | +180 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 61.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+9.00 Units / 300% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.30 Units / 104% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games (+6.20 Units / 110% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+19.00 Units / 380% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+7.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.25 Units / 44% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 116 games (+22.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 117 games (+16.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 134 games (+11.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 89 away games (+6.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 away games (+3.77 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 67 games at home (+27.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 67 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 3-2 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -1.21% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -23.66% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -63.48% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 55.24% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 4-2 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 24.68% ROI).
- 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 40.8% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -5.88% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -3.13% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +130 |
| Connor Gillispie (MIA) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 75% (56/75) against Clay Holmes in 2023 — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 75% (56/75) against Clay Holmes in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes since last season — 3rd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 70% (54/77) against Clay Holmes in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Gillispie has a strike rate of just 44% (7/16) when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 70% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (3/22) against Connor Gillispie this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (3/22) against Connor Gillispie this season — 8th lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 26% — 15th Percentile.
Connor Gillispie has walked 4 of 24 batters (17%) this season — tied for 5th highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 8% — 10th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are just 15-67 (.183) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mets were just 65-13 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .762 (1,697 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets hitters are slugging .434 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Mets hitters have 7 extra-base hits out of 11 total hits (64%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins are just 18-50 (.265) against the run line (-47.7% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .456.
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in 2023 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 604 of 6,268 batters (10%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
The Marlins have allowed 5.92 runs per game (515/87) at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.24 (808.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
More MLB Reading:
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