The New York Mets (+105) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-125) on Wednesday, March 20, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Jupiter, FL.
This season, the Mets are 9-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 6-9 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Mets | +105 |
| Marlins | -125 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 52.8% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in his last away game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in his last away game (+1.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the RBIs Under in his last away game (+1.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Garrett Hampson has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+1.90 Units / 190% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 10-8 against the Run Line (+2.2 Units / 9.96% ROI).
- 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.61 Units / -2.52% ROI
- 3-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.26 Units / -57.27% ROI
- 13-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.6 Units / 48.1% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 6-9 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -17.97% ROI).
- 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -35.28% ROI
- 4-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.37 Units / -49.09% ROI
- 11-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.88 Units / 43.13% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Christian Scott is making his MLB debut today.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pat Monteverde is making his MLB debut today.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets are 151-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 46-28 (.622) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins were 54-8 (.871) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Marlins are just 103-24 (.811) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Marlins are 13-142 (.084) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are 93-13 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .343 (764 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Mets hitters had a groundball batting average of just .228 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters had 149 extra-base hits out of 547 total hits (just 27%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers threw at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
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