- The Mets are -150 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | WPIX
The New York Mets (-150) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+125) on Sunday, April 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Mets are 19-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 13-14 ATS.
Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 3-2, 1.07 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 3-1, 1.38 ERA
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +115 | O 8 -115 | -150 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | U 8 -105 | +125 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+8.90 Units / 111% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 79% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+12.90 Units / 161% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+8.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+8.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 15-12 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 9.91% ROI).
- 19-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units / 19.74% ROI
- 8-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.95 Units / -39.97% ROI
- 18-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.2 Units / 31.19% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 13-14 against the Run Line (-2.5 Units / -7.5% ROI).
- 12-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -3.5% ROI
- 12-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -10.47% ROI
- 14-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 3.19% ROI
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill had a strike rate of just 56% (249/446) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Tylor Megill has walked 18% of batters over the past seven days (1 game) — highest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a strikeout rate of 46% (10 SO in 22 PAs) over the past seven days (1 game) — 2nd best among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Tylor Megill has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to March 28th — Shawn Armstrong has the longest active streak at 14.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has a strike rate of 73% (96/131) in two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 54% (39/72) against Mitchell Parker with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has thrown elevated sliders36% of the time (25/70) this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .165 (19-for-115) against Mitchell Parker this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 95th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 8-66 (.108) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are 7-1 (.875) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 50-84 (.373) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 24-86 (.218) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Nationals are just 154-197 (.439) since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have a winning percentage of 92% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 92% at home since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .192 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 70% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .954 (2,412 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 2.64 (122.2 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 2.36 (240.2 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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