- The Mets are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mets / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | SNY | MLBN
The New York Mets (-160) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Monday, April 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Mets are 19-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 14-14 ATS.
Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Griffin Canning 3-1, 3.16 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 1-2, 5.11 ERA
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +100 | O 9.5 -105 | -160 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | U 9.5 -115 | +135 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 59.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+6.50 Units / 162% ROI)
- Griffin Canning has hit the Walks Allowed Over in his last 5 away games (+5.80 Units / 90% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Griffin Canning has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 5 away games (+5.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.70 Units / 40% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+8.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 63% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.25 Units / 30% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+9.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+7.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 15-13 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 6.84% ROI).
- 19-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 15.56% ROI
- 9-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.95 Units / -35.44% ROI
- 18-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +8 Units / 26.06% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 14-14 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -4.32% ROI).
- 13-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.85% ROI
- 13-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -6.86% ROI
- 14-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.81% ROI
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Griffin Canning (NYM) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Trevor Williams (WAS) | 4.5 +140 | 4.5 -185 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Griffin Canning allowed a slugging percentage of .561 (147 Total Bases / 262 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — first Percentile.
Griffin Canning has allowed a slugging percentage of .532 (160 Total Bases / 301 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — first Percentile.
Griffin Canning has allowed an OPS of .881 (333 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .665 — second Percentile.
Griffin Canning allowed an OPS of .903 (288 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .670 — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .433 (26-for-60) against Trevor Williams this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams threw his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (619/1,221) of the time in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 34% (168/498) against Trevor Williams on sliders in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (964/1,906) of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 7-1 (.875) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 12-1 (.923) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .607.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 2-14 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 37-57 (.394) on the road since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .466.
The Nationals are just 155-197 (.440) since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .242 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 92% at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Mets hitters have been successful in just 44% of their sacrifice bunt attempts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 78%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 92% at home since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .959 (2,420 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 2.53 (249.0 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in 2023 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
More MLB Reading:
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