- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | SNY
The New York Mets (-145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Tuesday, July 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Mets are 41-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 48-36 ATS.
Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 5-3, 3.93 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 1-2, 5.41 ERA
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | O 9 -110 | -145 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -145 | U 9 -110 | +120 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 62.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 73 games (+16.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 33 away games (+12.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 76 games (+11.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 76 games (+10.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+6.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.25 Units / 41% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 40-42 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -3.87% ROI).
- 41-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.05 Units / -2.2% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.45 Units / 5.01% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.65 Units / -13.36% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 48-36 against the Run Line (+8.03 Units / 7.42% ROI).
- 39-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.7 Units / 8.74% ROI
- 38-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.9 Units / -8.61% ROI
- 42-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.17 Units / -0.18% ROI
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ildemaro Vargas (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has walked 6 of 28 right-handed batters (21%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 8 of 42 batters (19%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 13 of 72 batters (18%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .113 (6-for-53) against Sean Manaea’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .219 — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Davidjohn Herz has limited playing time.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 28-10 (.737) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Mets are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 24-9 (.727) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Mets are 11-8 (.579) after a road loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Nationals are just 52-200 (.206) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Nationals are just 77-122 (.387) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Nationals are just 49-73 (.402) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging 1.109 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .597.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .795 (1,453 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Mets hitters are slugging .536 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Mets are batting .276 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .383 against RHP since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .691 (6,439 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Nationals hitters have drawn 121 walks in 2,192 PA’s (6%) when leading off an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 213 of 2,153 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 73 of 741 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 320 of 3,171 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in late innings since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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