- The Mets are -130 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | SNY
The New York Mets (-130) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+105) on Wednesday, July 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Mets are 42-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 48-37 ATS.
Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 0-2, 3.95 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-4, 3.35 ERA
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 +100 | -130 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -120 | +105 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 74 games (+17.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+12.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 37 away games (+7.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 77 games (+10.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 77 games (+9.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+6.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 41-42 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -2.82% ROI).
- 42-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -1.11% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.45 Units / 4.95% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.65 Units / -13.19% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 48-37 against the Run Line (+6.73 Units / 6.14% ROI).
- 39-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 7.52% ROI
- 38-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.9 Units / -8.51% ROI
- 42-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.17 Units / -0.18% ROI
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Christian Scott (NYM) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has 20 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 14th most among of 568 pitchers in MLB — 97th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .338 (76 Total Bases / 225 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .469 — 99th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OPS of just .401 (89 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .646 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .375 (6-for-16) against Mitchell Parker when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 4th highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .252 — 10th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are 7-26 (.212) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Mets are just 28-10 (.737) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Mets are just 32-6 (.842) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Nationals are just 52-201 (.206) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Nationals are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 77-123 (.385) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .276 on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters are slugging 1.178 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .601.
The Mets are batting .258 on the road since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mets hitters have just 2,223 strikeouts in 10,739 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .936 (1,693 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters have 84 extra-base hits out of 277 total hits (just 30%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 75 of 751 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 215 of 2,163 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .310 against Mets pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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