- The Mets are -115 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | SNY | MLBN
The New York Mets (-110) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-110) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 11:05am EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Mets are 42-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 49-37 ATS.
Mets vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 3-5, 4.52 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 6-6, 3.05 ERA
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 9 -105 | -110 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | U 9 -115 | -110 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 75 games (+18.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+13.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 78 games (+11.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 78 games (+11.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+7.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.90 Units / 32% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 41-43 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -3.71% ROI).
- 42-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -2.45% ROI
- 44-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 5.99% ROI
- 35-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -14.26% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 49-37 against the Run Line (+7.73 Units / 6.96% ROI).
- 40-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 8.66% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -7.34% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.27 Units / -1.33% ROI
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 5.5 +135 | 5.5 -185 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (443/775) in two strike counts since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 50% (471/943) when ahead in the count since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 53% (1,025/1,939) when ahead in the count since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed a slugging percentage of .630 (29 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .369 — second Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (121/329) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a strikeout rate of 50% (9 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
9 of Jake Irvin’s 32 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 95th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has allowed an OBP of just .219 (178 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 97th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 32-6 (.842) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Mets are just 28-10 (.737) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are 7-27 (.206) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are 5-31 (.139) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .055.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Nationals are just 78-123 (.388) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 159-210 (.431) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 52-68 (.433) at home since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging 1.167 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .604.
Mets hitters are slugging .553 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .326 (10,746 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Mets are batting .273 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 76 of 759 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 216 of 2,171 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 326 of 3,245 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .348 (3,606 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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