- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | SNY | MLBN
The New York Mets (+115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on Thursday, May 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Mets are 19-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 25-19 ATS.
Mets vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 1-4, 5.36 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 3-0, 4.91 ERA
Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -115 | -135 |
Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 41 games (+11.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Quintana has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+15.20 Units / 304% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 35 games (+13.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.95 Units / 111% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 away games (+2.75 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 27 games (+20.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 29 games (+17.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 27 games (+16.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 28 games (+15.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 26 games (+13.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 19-23 against the Run Line (-4.75 Units / -8.89% ROI).
- 19-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -9.52% ROI
- 19-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.2 Units / -9.47% ROI
- 21-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.8% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 25-19 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 13.6% ROI).
- 31-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.25 Units / 17.06% ROI
- 22-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.21% ROI
- 20-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -9.04% ROI
Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Whit Merrifield (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker (PHI) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has allowed an OPS of 1.084 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .655 — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed a slugging percentage of .661 (41 Total Bases / 62 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — second Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (428/720) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of just 31% (28 SO in 90 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 99 of Taijuan Walker’s 467 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .467 (7 GB hits out of 15 GBs) against Taijuan Walker this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (40/231) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .370 (10-for-27) against Taijuan Walker — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .223 — fourth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are just 3-87 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 9-44 (.170) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mets are just 7-138 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Mets are just 18-31 (.367) after a road loss since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .477.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 14-9 (.609) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Phillies are 101-56 (.643) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Phillies are just 15-22 (.405) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 95-8 (.922) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .606 (885 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Mets hitters are slugging just .322 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
The Mets are batting just .240 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Mets are batting just .236 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .506 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .755 (1,094 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .331 (1,094 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Phillies are batting .450 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 47 of 379 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 63 of 480 batters (13%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 192 of 1,627 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 187 of 1,791 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .109 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Phillies have won 61% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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