- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Phillies Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Mets / Phillies TV Channel: FOX
The New York Mets (+155) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Saturday, October 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:08pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Mets are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 0-0 ATS.
Mets vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 16-7, 2.58 ERA
Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -145 | O 7 -105 | +155 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +120 | U 7 -115 | -185 |
Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 59.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+13.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+12.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.05 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+13.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games at home (+11.50 Units / 77% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Walks Under in 24 of his last 43 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 106 games (+21.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 107 games (+15.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 84 away games (+8.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 away games (+4.32 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+16.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 71 games at home (+14.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 103 games (+11.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 72 games at home (+11.23 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 70 games at home (+9.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga (NYM) | 2.5 -145 | 2.5 +110 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has allowed a slugging percentage of just .276 (82 Total Bases / 297 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .414 — 99th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has allowed an OPS of just .746 (159 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1.078 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .189 (56-for-297) against Kodai Senga since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .205 (128-for-624) against Kodai Senga since last season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 95th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OPS of just .434 (369 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .665 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .201 (368 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (39/238) against Zack Wheeler this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .222 (284 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .310 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 9-61 (.129) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 12-52 (.188) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 17-192 (.081) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are 91-39 (.700) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 83-15 (.847) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Phillies are 232-64 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Phillies are 54-27 (.667) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 27-23 (.540) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Mets are 9-61 (.129) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (5,533 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Phillies hitters are slugging .441 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Phillies are batting .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,177 of 12,182 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 121 of 1,445 batters (8%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 914 of 12,124 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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