- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Phillies TV Channel: FS1
The New York Mets (+120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-145) on Sunday, October 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:08pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Mets are 92-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 79-84 ATS.
Mets vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 12-7, 3.92 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 11-9, 3.28 ERA
Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | O 8 +100 | +120 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -120 | -145 |
Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Mets vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 107 games (+23.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 108 games (+16.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 85 away games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 26 away games (+3.32 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games (+17.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 72 games at home (+13.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 104 games (+12.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 73 games at home (+12.23 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 71 games at home (+10.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 86-80 against the Run Line (+3.1 Units / 1.46% ROI).
- 92-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.9 Units / 4.7% ROI
- 84-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.54% ROI
- 77-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -14 Units / -7.74% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 79-84 against the Run Line (-8.9 Units / -4.47% ROI).
- 95-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -1.33% ROI
- 79-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -2.92% ROI
- 76-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -6.34% ROI
Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of just 19% (53 SO in 277 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 17th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .196 (50-for-255) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 88th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (253/598) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 40% of the time (800/2,025) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (136/221) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (324/557) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (201/316) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (419/854) against Cristopher Sanchez with two-strikes since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 9-61 (.129) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 12-52 (.188) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 17-192 (.081) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are 17-8 (.680) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 54-27 (.667) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 160-39 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Phillies are 103-59 (.636) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 150-93 (.617) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .525.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are 9-61 (.129) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (12,964 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters are slugging .440 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies are batting .264 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (5,533 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Phillies are batting .270 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,177 of 12,182 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 444 of 6,050 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
Bet now on Mets vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
