- The Rays are -120 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Rays Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Mets / Rays TV Channel: SNY | BSUN
The New York Mets (-105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-115) on Sunday, May 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Mets are 16-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 13-21 ATS.
Mets vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 2-2, 2.32 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 3-2, 3.12 ERA
Mets vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +165 | O 7 +100 | -105 |
| Rays | +1.5 -200 | U 7 -120 | -115 |
Mets vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- DJ Stewart has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+10.00 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+9.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 27 games (+9.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+13.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+12.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+9.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games at home (+8.30 Units / 52% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+17.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 58 games (+10.19 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games (+7.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.26 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 16-17 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.62% ROI).
- 16-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -3.44% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -7.88% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -1.33% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 13-21 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -19.35% ROI).
- 16-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -19.11% ROI
- 19-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 6.85% ROI
- 15-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.05 Units / -16.09% ROI
Rays vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Rays vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Richard Palacios (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Rays vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Caballero (TB) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitless in 18 AB’s against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 52% (27/52) against Luis Severino this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 88th Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of just .128 (6 Total Bases / 47 ABs) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .373 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (166/378) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitless in 15 AB’s against Ryan Pepiot on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .314 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (48/117) against Ryan Pepiot on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has allowed an OBP of just .182 (66 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (48/117) against Ryan Pepiot on fastballs this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mets are just 13-71 (.155) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Mets are just 3-84 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are just 8-44 (.154) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Mets are 161-12 (.931) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Rays are just 13-31 (.295) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Rays are just 6-17 (.261) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Rays are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 18-7 (.720) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .272 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .227.
Mets hitters have just 50 strikeouts in 282 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have been successful on 62% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are batting just .213 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 7 strikeouts in 11 PA’s (64%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have put just 17% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rays hitters have 89 strikeouts in 334 PA’s (27%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Rays are batting .267 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have walked 146 of 1,269 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have allowed three-ball counts to 25% of batters they faced (320/1,269 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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