- The Mets are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Mets vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Red Sox TV Channel: SNY | NESN
The New York Mets (-130) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+110) on Monday, May 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Mets are 29-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 23-24 ATS.
Mets vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga 4-2, 1.02 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Hunter Dobbins 2-1, 3.95 ERA
Mets vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | O 9 +100 | -130 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | U 9 -120 | +110 |
Mets vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brett Baty has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+28.40 Units / 406% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 86% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+11.50 Units / 77% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+8.85 Units / 221% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 38% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.89 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 33 games (+5.44 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games (+5.40 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 43 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.26 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+5.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.83 Units / 17% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 24-23 against the Run Line (+2.64 Units / 4.5% ROI).
- 29-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 5.49% ROI
- 17-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -26.98% ROI
- 28-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.15 Units / 17.77% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 23-24 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.25% ROI).
- 23-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.56 Units / -14.28% ROI
- 24-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.02 Units / -1.93% ROI
- 23-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -5.61% ROI
Red Sox vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Red Sox vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Red Sox vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga (NYM) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .111 (36-for-324) against Kodai Senga with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .099 (7-for-71) against Kodai Senga’s non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 100th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has allowed a slugging percentage of just .159 (65 Total Bases / 408 ABs) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .266 — 100th Percentile.
Kodai Senga had a strike rate of just 61% (1,699/2,795) in 2023 — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .469 (15-for-32) against Hunter Dobbins this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Hunter Dobbins has allowed an OPS of 1.313 (32 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .692 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .469 (15-for-32) against Hunter Dobbins this month (3 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .237 — second Percentile.
Hunter Dobbins has allowed a slugging percentage of .844 (27 Total Bases / 32 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .393 — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 8-75 (.096) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are 13-4 (.765) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets are 39-30 (.565) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 38-43 (.469) at home in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Red Sox are just 15-147 (.093) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox are just 41-159 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .176 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Mets hitters are slugging .434 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Mets hitters have chased 19% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox are batting .378 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 11% of batters this month (16 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in 2023 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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