- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Mets vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Red Sox TV Channel: TBS | Max | SNY | NESN
The New York Mets (-125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+105) on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Mets are 29-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 24-24 ATS.
Mets vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 5-2, 3.15 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 4-3, 2.01 ERA
Mets vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -110 | -125 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -150 | U 9 -110 | +105 |
Mets vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brett Baty has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+27.40 Units / 342% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+9.30 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+7.85 Units / 157% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.65 Units / 60% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.89 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 89% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 34 games (+4.44 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 44 games (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.26 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.73 Units / 13% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 24-24 against the Run Line (+1.64 Units / 2.75% ROI).
- 29-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 3.64% ROI
- 17-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.1 Units / -28.49% ROI
- 29-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.15 Units / 19.3% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 24-24 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 1.38% ROI).
- 24-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.51 Units / -12.52% ROI
- 24-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.12 Units / -3.92% ROI
- 24-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -3.63% ROI
Red Sox vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Red Sox vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -150 |
| Walker Buehler (BOS) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (54/77) against Clay Holmes in two-strike counts since last season — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 75% (56/75) against Clay Holmes in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes since last season — 4th highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Crochet had a strikeout rate of 35% (209/595) in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 39% (68 SO in 173 PAs) with runners in scoring position since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has allowed an OBP of just .175 (515 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 95th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 38% (81 SO in 214 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are 11-7 (.611) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
The Mets are 26-18 (.591) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are 19-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .172 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .231 since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in 2023 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 61% at home since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 11% of batters this month (17 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 12% of batters over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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