- The Red Sox are -145 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Red Sox TV Channel: SNY | NESN | MLBN
The New York Mets (+120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Wednesday, May 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Mets are 29-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 25-24 ATS.
Mets vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 3-4, 3.69 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 4-3, 2.01 ERA
Mets vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -115 | +120 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -105 | -145 |
Mets vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+8.80 Units / 98% ROI)
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.90 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+13.45 Units / 224% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 15 games at home (+6.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games at home (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+11.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+9.89 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 35 games (+3.44 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 32 games (+12.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 45 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 24-25 against the Run Line (+0.64 Units / 1.06% ROI).
- 29-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 1.65% ROI
- 17-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.2 Units / -29.94% ROI
- 30-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.15 Units / 20.76% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 25-24 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 2.95% ROI).
- 25-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.36 Units / -10.67% ROI
- 24-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.22 Units / -5.84% ROI
- 25-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -1.73% ROI
Red Sox vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Red Sox vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Red Sox vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Garrett Crochet (BOS) | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .392 (40-for-102) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .263 — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill allowed an OBP of .475 (120 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .325 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .488 (43 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .311 — second Percentile.
Tylor Megill had a strike rate of just 56% (249/446) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 38% (138 SO in 366 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (480/1,113) with two-strikes since last season — tied for highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 33% (282 SO in 846 PAs) since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 39% (68 SO in 173 PAs) with runners in scoring position since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 8-77 (.094) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are 4-2 (.667) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Red Sox (23rd best runs allowed) today.
The Mets are 39-32 (.549) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox are just 15-147 (.093) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Red Sox are 20-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .168 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets batted just .238 in 2023 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .803 (598 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .376 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% against Mets pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 11% of batters this month (18 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Mets pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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