- The Reds are -125 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Reds TV Channel: ATV+
The New York Mets (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Friday, April 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Mets are 1-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 3-3 ATS.
Mets vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 0-1, 3.86 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 0-0, 3.86 ERA
Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -110 | +105 |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -110 | -125 |
Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 79% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.45 Units / 99% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.25 Units / 89% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- Graham Ashcraft has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 48% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 93 of their last 156 games (+19.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 76 games at home (+5.48 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 0-6 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -100% ROI).
- 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -71.61% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -34.88% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 26.67% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 3-3 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -3.95% ROI).
- 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 26.42% ROI
- 5-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 59.85% ROI
- 1-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -67.42% ROI
Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lindor | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Taylor | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Marte | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| India | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| De La Cruz | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Greene | 6.5 -160 | 6.5 +125 |
| Quintana | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has thrown his curveball 29% of the time (5/17) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total CB; League Avg: 8% — 96th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.3 MPH on inside pitches since the 2022 season (208 balls in play) — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (397/774) of the time since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 54% (800/1,486) when ahead in the count since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has thrown 27 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown inside pitches 53% of the time (53/100) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown inside pitches 69% of the time (47/68) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has struck out 34% (89/258) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 18-28 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Mets were just 14-27 (.341) after a road loss in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Reds are just 18-24 (.429) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 50-38 (.568) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 75-105 (.417) after a loss since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .232 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets are batting just .114 in hitter’s counts this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .488 (173 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have put just 28% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds hitters have 21 extra-base hits out of 41 total hits (51%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Reds hitters have 48 strikeouts in 171 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds hitters are slugging .471 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 613 of 6,324 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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