- The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Reds
- Mets vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Reds TV Channel: SNY | BSOH
The New York Mets (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Sunday, April 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Mets are 2-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 4-4 ATS.
Mets vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 0-0, 3.38 ERA
Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -110 | -115 |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -110 | -105 |
Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.45 Units / 74% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 87% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- Graham Ashcraft has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 93 of their last 156 games (+19.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 76 games at home (+5.48 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 1-7 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -71.58% ROI).
- 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -55.9% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -28.16% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 18.54% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 4-4 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 3.13% ROI).
- 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 17.14% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 42.37% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -52.57% ROI
Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lindor | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Taylor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| India | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| De La Cruz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Marte | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manaea | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Abbott | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 10% (1/10) against Sean Manaea this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (33/163) against Sean Manaea on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 30% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 20% (32/160) against Sean Manaea on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 7th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — ninth Percentile.
Sean Manaea allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (27 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on low fastballs in the 2023 season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .410 — fourth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (21/103) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 20% (22/109) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (44/162) against Andrew Abbott on non-fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (11/50) against Andrew Abbott on low breaking pitches since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are just 6-40 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 11-64 (.147) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 40-47 (.460) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Reds are just 39-18 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Reds are just 19-24 (.442) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Reds are just 50-38 (.568) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .052 on breaking pitches against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .526 (252 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Mets hitters are slugging just .251 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .556 (59 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.043.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have 25 extra-base hits out of 50 total hits (50%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Reds hitters have put 50% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Reds hitters have 33 extra-base hits out of 71 total hits (47%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Reds hitters have 12 extra-base hits out of 23 total hits (52%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 624 of 6,405 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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