Mets vs Tigers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 21

(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

The New York Mets (+120) visit Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium to take on the Detroit Tigers (-145) on Thursday, March 21, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Lakeland, FL.

This season, the Mets are 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 1-0 ATS.

Mets vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Moneyline
Mets+120
Tigers -145

Mets vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 55.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in his last away game (+1.75 Units / 175% ROI)
  • Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in his last away game (+1.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Mark Vientos has hit the RBIs Under in his last away game (+1.00 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Andy Ibanez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+5.90 Units / 197% ROI)
  • Andre Lipcius has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.25 Units / 105% ROI)
  • Matt Vierling has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
  • Zack Short has hit the Runs Over in his last game at home (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
  • Andre Lipcius has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 151 games (+15.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.89 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.39 Units / 74% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 54.05% ROI).

  • 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Tigers are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 67.57% ROI).

  • 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.42 Units / 142% ROI
  • 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 92.59% ROI
  • 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.12 Units / -100% ROI

Dominic Hamel is making his MLB debut today.

Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Matt Manning allowed a BABIP of .216 in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (21/140) versus Matt Manning on non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents had a chase percentage of just 22% (114/514) against Matt Manning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.

Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (20/131) versus Matt Manning on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Mets are 151-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.

The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Mets are 46-28 (.622) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Tigers were 31-9 (.775) when they scored in the first inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .611.

The Tigers are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Tigers are just 20-126 (.137) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Tigers are just 32-41 (.438) after a home win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Mets hitters had an OBP of .343 (764 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.

Mets hitters had a groundball batting average of just .228 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.

The Tigers have answered-back in just 21% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Tigers hitters slugged just .171 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.

Tigers hitters had an OPS of just .679 (4,707 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .732.

Tigers hitters slugged just .410 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .455.

Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Mets pitchers threw at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

The Tigers pitchers have allowed the 29th hardest ball in play hit (119.5 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).

Tigers pitchers won only 16% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Tigers won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Tigers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dillon Dingler (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Riley Greene (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
  • Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
  • Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, Out
  • Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
  • Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
  • Mason Englert (Detroit Tigers): Hip, Out
  • Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
  • Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
  • David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
  • Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
  • Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.