- The Braves are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Braves TV Channel: MAS2 | BSSO
The Washington Nationals (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Monday, May 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Nationals are 23-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 25-25 ATS.
Nationals vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 3-2, 3.38 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 3-1, 3.47 ERA
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 9 -120 | +165 |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | U 9 +100 | -200 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB game with 64.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 games (+27.90 Units / 174% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+12.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+11.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+17.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+14.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+13.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 games at home (+13.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 36 games (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 43 games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 43 games (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 43 games (+6.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 36 games (+20.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 37 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+2.50 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 31-20 against the Run Line (+8.53 Units / 12.96% ROI).
- 23-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 12.05% ROI
- 21-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -15.34% ROI
- 27-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.68 Units / 6.52% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 25-25 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 2.93% ROI).
- 30-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -1.2% ROI
- 17-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.65 Units / -30.52% ROI
- 31-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.3 Units / 22.14% ROI
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -550 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitchell Parker has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (40/133) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed a slugging percentage of .560 (28 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .307 — 0 Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .114 (5 Total Bases / 44 ABs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .252 — 95th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OBP of just .149 (47 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 95th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has walked 38 of 342 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 65 of 626 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Charlie Morton has allowed a slugging percentage of .731 (19 Total Bases / 26 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — second Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (327/824) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are 5-1 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
The Nationals are just 54-94 (.365) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Nationals are just 46-189 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Nationals are just 24-44 (.353) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 34-57 (.374) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are 17-62 (.215) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Braves are 86-47 (.647) after a win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .387 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Nationals are batting just .186 on the road this month (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .527 (385 PA’s) on the road this month (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Nationals are just 3-13 (.188) against the run line (-52.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .461 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .379 (983 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters are slugging .562 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Braves hitters are slugging .474 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .354 (3,295 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .360 (1,880 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.2 MPH this season (1,185 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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