- The Diamondbacks are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | MAS2 | KPNX
The Washington Nationals (+185) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-225) on Friday, May 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Nationals are 26-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 25-31 ATS.
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 4-1, 3.46 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 5-2, 3.54 ERA
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 9 +100 | +185 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 -110 | U 9 -120 | -225 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 64.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+18.65 Units / 266% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+12.25 Units / 123% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gabriel Moreno has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+12.00 Units / 171% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Walks Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.25 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 away games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+8.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.49 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 40 games (+14.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games (+11.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 30-26 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -1.72% ROI).
- 26-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.93 Units / 3.29% ROI
- 27-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -3.84% ROI
- 27-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.8 Units / -4.52% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 25-31 against the Run Line (-11.11 Units / -15.3% ROI).
- 27-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.05 Units / -11.88% ROI
- 25-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -8.08% ROI
- 27-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.65 Units / -1.06% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown 61% of his pitches in the strike zone (253/413) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (104/278) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (236/590) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown 64% of his pitches in the strike zone (111/173) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has allowed an OBP of just .162 (99 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .292 — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed an OBP of just .162 (99 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .126 (12-for-95) against Merrill Kelly when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed an OPS of just .351 (99 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 67-98 (.404) after a win since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Nationals were just 27-44 (.380) after a win in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Nationals are just 84-104 (.444) at home since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Diamondbacks are 58-50 (.537) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Diamondbacks are 89-22 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Diamondbacks are just 25-2 (.926) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .958.
The Diamondbacks are just 172-14 (.925) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters had an OBP of just .285 (819 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks batted .284 against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .346 (4,181 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 17% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .277 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 47% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
More MLB Reading:
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