- The Nationals are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | MAS2
The Washington Nationals (-118) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-102) on Friday, April 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 5-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 7-5 ATS.
Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 2-0, 0.73 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 1-1, 6.00 ERA
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -102 | -118 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -180 | U 8 -118 | -102 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+16.20 Units / 231% ROI)
- Mitchell Parker has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Mitchell Parker has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.40 Units / 73% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Mitchell Parker has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+18.00 Units / 300% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+10.25 Units / 68% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dane Myers has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 105% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.35 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 162 games (+3.60 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 76 away games (+3.54 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 67 of their last 162 games (+2.55 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 78 away games (+0.85 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 81 games at home (+26.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games at home (+8.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 6-6 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -12.46% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -1.24% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 11.61% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -19.16% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 7-5 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 14.44% ROI).
- 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 19.59% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -6.57% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -3.15% ROI
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Derek Hill (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Derek Hill (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
4 of Mitchell Parker’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has thrown elevated pitches 53% of the time (24/45) when behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 6% (1/17) against Mitchell Parker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .205 (9 Total Bases / 44 ABs) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — 94th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 19% (60/319) against Cal Quantrill with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed a slugging percentage of .676 (46 Total Bases / 68 ABs) on fastballs away since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: .371 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 20% (70/354) against Cal Quantrill with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (116/248) of opposing batters left-handed hitters in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 25-47 (.347) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Marlins (27th best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 43-151 (.222) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 50-84 (.373) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Marlins (27th best runs scored) today.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins are just 34-54 (.386) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins are just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals are batting just .241 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
34% of Marlins hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.21 (819.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
More MLB Reading:
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