- The Marlins are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | MAS2
The Washington Nationals (+118) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-145) on Saturday, April 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 6-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 7-6 ATS.
Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 1-0, 5.40 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 1-0, 3.73 ERA
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -180 | O 7.5 -105 | +118 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -115 | -145 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+18.60 Units / 465% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 109% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Mervis has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.70 Units / 242% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.45 Units / 65% ROI)
- Dane Myers has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 105% ROI)
- Griffin Conine has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.20 Units / 56% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 45% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.50 Units / 96% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 90 of their last 163 games (+5.15 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 77 away games (+1.99 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 67 of their last 163 games (+1.45 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 82 games at home (+27.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 82 games at home (+9.05 Units / 9% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 7-6 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -1.89% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 6.44% ROI
- 8-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 17.65% ROI
- 5-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -25.44% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 7-6 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 1.88% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 9.74% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.67% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -10.55% ROI
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams (WAS) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams allowed a slugging percentage of .500 (132 Total Bases / 264 ABs) when behind in the count in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .310 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams had a strike rate of just 51% (254/498) on sliders in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (898/1,770) of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .478 (11-for-23) against Trevor Williams this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 74% (17/23) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of 56% (733/1,301) against Sandy Alcantara in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 47% (200/426) against Sandy Alcantara with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 97th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 69% (731/1,055) when behind in the count in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 77-94 (.450) at home since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Nationals are just 148-189 (.439) since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 59-87 (.404) after a win since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins are just 42-16 (.724) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins are just 19-36 (.345) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Nationals (25th best runs scored) today.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .949 (2,304 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.085.
Nationals hitters had an OBP of just .285 (819 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins were just 4-17 (.190) against the run line (-61.9% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.23 (828.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.94.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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