- The Mets are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Mets Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Mets TV Channel: MASN | SNY
The Washington Nationals (+155) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-190) on Wednesday, July 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Nationals are 42-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 43-47 ATS.
Nationals vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 1-8, 5.53 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 5-3, 3.82 ERA
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 9 +100 | +155 |
| Mets | -1.5 -105 | U 9 -120 | -190 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 61.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Nationals vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+15.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+10.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 84 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 84 games (+3.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 51 of their last 81 games (+15.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 64% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 52-40 against the Run Line (+6.93 Units / 5.81% ROI).
- 42-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.5 Units / 5.68% ROI
- 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -5.26% ROI
- 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.72 Units / -3.66% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 43-47 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -5.91% ROI).
- 45-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -2.38% ROI
- 47-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.05 Units / 5.16% ROI
- 38-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.95 Units / -13.52% ROI
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +110 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .315 (209-for-664) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .311 (127-for-409) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .293 (186-for-634) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .536 (165 Total Bases / 308 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (55/310) against Luis Severino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (25/152) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has struck out just 16% (35/213) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (188/429) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 53-203 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 51-75 (.405) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Nationals are just 29-49 (.372) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 6-35 (.146) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .057.
The Mets are just 30-11 (.732) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 34-6 (.850) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .943.
The Mets are 7-29 (.194) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .944 (1,739 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.085.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 124 walks in 2,264 PA’s (6%) when leading off an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .690 (4,797 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .267 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .264 (1,860 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .328 (1,701 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
The Mets are batting .256 on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 347 of 3,463 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 218 of 2,222 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 78 of 810 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
Bet now on Nationals vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
