- The Nationals are -110 favorites vs the Padres
- Nationals vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Padres TV Channel: MAS2 | PDTV | ESPN+
The Washington Nationals (-110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-110) on Tuesday, June 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Nationals are 38-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 41-42 ATS.
Nationals vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 6-6, 3.46 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Adam Mazur 0-2, 7.14 ERA
Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -110 | -110 |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -110 | -110 |
Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+14.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.10 Units / 303% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+10.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+10.35 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 12 games (+39.30 Units / 328% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+15.55 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+12.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.05 Units / 32% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 70 games (+17.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 70 games (+15.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 72 games (+6.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 39 away games (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.75 Units / 33% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 47-31 against the Run Line (+13.73 Units / 13.77% ROI).
- 38-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.85 Units / 14.49% ROI
- 34-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -11.36% ROI
- 40-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.43 Units / 2.82% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 41-42 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 1.63% ROI).
- 42-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -6.97% ROI
- 43-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 0.44% ROI
- 39-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -9.2% ROI
Padres vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Mazur (SD) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (74/219) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 34% (58/169) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has not walked any of the 36 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .469 (23-for-49) against MacKenzie Gore when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .320 — second Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Mazur has walked 12 of 44 left-handed batters (27%) this month (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Adam Mazur has walked 16 of 83 batters (19%) this month (4 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Adam Mazur has allowed an OBP of .523 (44 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (4 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .328 — third Percentile.
Adam Mazur has walked 5 of 36 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are 8-1 (.889) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 28-47 (.373) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 102-117 (.466) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Nationals are just 49-91 (.350) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are just 9-21 (.300) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Padres are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .059.
The Padres are just 4-164 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Padres are just 1-103 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are 8-1 (.889) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Nationals hitters have drawn 116 walks in 2,137 PA’s (5%) when leading off an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .925 (1,647 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.082.
The Nationals are 8-1 (60.2% ROI) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 58%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .350 (3,536 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,920 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have walked 28 of 201 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (23 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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