- The Phillies are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Phillies TV Channel: MAS2 | NSPA
The Washington Nationals (+185) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 13-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 15-14 ATS.
Nationals vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 2-0, 3.25 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 2-1, 3.38 ERA
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 8 -115 | +185 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -110 | U 8 -105 | -225 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 65.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+14.90 Units / 186% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games at home (+11.05 Units / 101% ROI)
- Johan Rojas has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+9.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+3.15 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.60 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 15-15 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -4.31% ROI).
- 13-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -5.55% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.3% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -7.38% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 15-14 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -4.79% ROI).
- 16-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -1.96% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -7.55% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -1.25% ROI
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Amed Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 -118 | 5.5 -110 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (135/376) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (208/541) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (32/93) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of just 41% (400/987) against Jake Irvin in 2023 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (136/221) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (147/245) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (361/626) against Cristopher Sanchez since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (324/557) against Cristopher Sanchez in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are 2-16 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals were just 27-44 (.380) after a win in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Nationals are just 37-58 (.389) on the road since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .466.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 3-9 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Phillies were 54-27 (.667) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Phillies are 94-25 (.790) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 809 times in 4,217 PA’s (19%) against RHP in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters had an OBP of just .285 (819 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in 2023 — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,271 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Phillies are batting just .245 in hitter’s counts this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .296 (609 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Phillies hitters are slugging just .377 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have allowed 2.37 runs per game (71/30) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games on the road since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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